Why a Libyan Scenario is Unlikely in Syria

The much talked about Jisr-Ashughur, on the outskirt of Idlib, which was a focal point of heavy confrontation between armed groups and the military, is under military control now. The same story that unfolded in Dar'a, Banias and Tal Kalakh, of demonstrations and armed groups conftronting security and miliraty forces, ended with the military retaking control of the city.

What is remarkable about the unrest in Syria is that the unrest erupts heavily in boarder towns: Dar'a is in the south of Syria on the Jordanian boarder, Banias is a shore line city in the west, Tal Kalakh is a village on the Lebanese boarder, and Jis-Ashughur is on the Turkish north western boarder. Some analysts have voiced the correlation between the armed unrest erupting in these cities, and the ability of groups to smuggle weapons across the boarder and prolong the bloody confrontation.

Syrian opposition outside of Syria (there are no organized or institutionalized opposition in Syria other than indiviuals who are counted as opposition) is comprised of mainly the Syrian Muslim brotherhood, which was brutely oppressed in 1982, Syrian Kurds, as well as Syrian communists which were also imprisoned and exiled in the 1960s. This Syrian opposition has mounting grievences against the regime stretching back to the 1960s. Although the opposition is not strongly organized, it does enjoy a heavy international governmental and media support.

Two Syrian opposition conferences have been held in Turkey, the second was held in Anatolya with 300 in attendance and a predominantly Muslim Brotherhood overtone. Considering that Turkey was Syria's strategic ally, hosting the Syrian opposition by Turkey is a glimps into where officials in Turkey, Qatar, and the United States are willing to let the confrontation against Bashar al -Asad go. Now that Erdogan seems to have won re-election, it would be possible that he would return to reassert his support for drastic poltical reform led by the Syrian regime. Erdogan has been talking in concert with the French, English and American's against the regime in Syria during his re-election campaign. Turkey, however, does not desire an overspill of turbulence on its southern boarders.

Creating a replica of Banghazi in Syria is unlikely. The outcome of every violent confrontation with the security and military forces by armed groups has been won by the regime. Furthermore, the towns like Dar'a, Banias and Tal Kalakh have returned to relative calm. The Syrian army despite some media interviews with alleged deserters, seems to be intact. The major cities, Damsacus and Aleppo are remarkably uneffected by either the protests or by the armed groups.


If the international community condemned the brutalty by which the regime is cracking down on protesters and armed opposition, what, if any, is the ethical responsibility of the Syrian opposition?

Is what one Syrian opposition MB leader residing in Australia said true? " 50,000 Syrians dying is a small price to pay to get rid of the regime in Syria"

Syrians who have left Syria in pain in the seventies and eighties are carrying this pain to their country men and women of today. Some Syrians in exile do not want to admit that their communities back home have changed over the period of fourty years. Syria has changed, and that change is painful to accept if your life's purpose is to avenge a past tragic loss and voice a longing to a homeland that does not resemble your memory of it anymore.

Two principles remain:The Syrian opposition has the right to demand reform. The Syrian regime is responsible for the management of the crisis, considering that the window to accept reform by the current government establishment is nerrowing.

All Syrians agree on the following however:
Stop the violence and free the political prisoners.

In addition to:

Political pluralism, independent judiciary, free press, a new Syrian constitution that establishes a new social contract between citizens and government.

"In Syria.. all are one"
"One party system is not for Syrians"

حبيبي حمزة

كم من أم رأت فيك ابنها ..يا نور عين أمك و كينونة وجودها

حزنت عليك بصمت مخجل.. حزنت لكل لحظات ألمك.. حزنت للحظات الوحشة التي أحسستها..حزنت لبرودة المكان و قساوة وجدان من لمسك.. حزنت لأنك لم تجد من يجير طفولتك.

حبيبي حمزة..كيف نداري خجلنا منك

ألوف من الرجال خرجوا من تجربة غياهب السجون و المخابرات بعد أيام, شهور, سنوات ليلتقوا بأحبتهم و لينحنوا على أيدي أمهاتهم مثقلين بطعون لكرامتهم.

طعنت كرامتك و طفولتك و آدميتك.. ولم تخرج لتمسح أمك على رأسك و تعيد بريق عينيك

حبيبي حمزة..مثقلين نحن بهم ما يحمل المستقبل لبلدنا الحبيب.

قبل كل ما يمكن أن يقال عن آلية الإصلاح و أولويات المرحلة.. قبل القوانين , قبل إعادة هيكلة المؤسسات.. هل يوجد سبيل إلى مصالحة وطنية؟ هل يمكن في يوم أن يلحظ السجان آدمية من سجن و أن يكف عن إذلال ما كرمه الله؟ هل يمكن أن يشيد السوري بكونه سوري, وأن يكون هذا كافيا لمعاملته بإنسانية في وطنه؟

حبيبي حمزة..لعل الملائكة تحفك الآن..

حبيبتي سوريا.. لعل الإصلاح و المصالحة ينير درب الياسمين إليك لتجمعي لديك كل من يحبك.

Syria: The Start of a Historic Phase

The events in Syria these past weeks, from demonstrations, acts of violence, weapon smuggling, and the aggressive tactics of the Syrian military and security forces, have proven that one can not provide a simple explanation about Syria's domestic dilema.

Browsing through Arab and western newspapers covering the Syrian events these past weeks, one trend seems to be still in vogue and that is the focus on a sectarian explanation of why the Ba'ath party succeeded in ruling Syria for 40 plus years, and why the Syrian people seem not to be willing to uprise in masses, as the Egyptians and Tunisians did.

It is the old Sunni vs. Alawi explanation. An Imam in the Gulf region made a fatwa concerning the situation in Syria a week ago, stating that "... so what if two thirds of the country eradicated the third..." stating that it is the duty of the Sunnies (70 %) to exterminate other religious sects in Syria (of which there is eighteen and they constitute 30%). His fatwa is also based on the sectarian explanation.

Basing one's analysis and explanation on that an Alawi sect is dominating state and financial institution without the approval and blessings of merchants, professionals and clergy from the majority group, is an out of touch perspective. It is a view point that gets lost in its ignorent simplicity by failing to explain a complex social and political structure.

The whole sectarian explanation falters and collapses if one spends few weeks in Syria, and realizes the dependancy of every sect and ethinicity on the cooporation of the other within the system. Spending few weeks in Syria would be enough to get an idea of how Sunni conservatives have made a come back, not to the liking of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, but are more in tune with the Syrian government, and one of its fierce defenders.

Again, this does not undermine the dire need for political reform and the need to socially and politically integrate the "other view point" in Syria.

The internal situation seemed to have calmed down which allows for a, long promissed, National Dialogue. Syria is expiriencing a social and political transformation, unlike the ones in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, etc. A transformation that has just hit a critical juncture. One of the essential elements for a successful transition is national unity الوحدة الوطنية; an element that seems to be intact.

Syrians asking for reforms within this national unity paradigm are only adding to Syria's strength. Syrians have died for dignity and freedom, and it seems that the executive cabinet is ready to implement a political reform plan and move on with its general reform agenda.

A Syrian made plan.. by all Syrians.

Syria is Bleeding!

The events of the last few days, especially the clashes between demonstrators and security forces after Friday prayers in a number of Syrian cities, have taken the situation in Syria to a familiar place. The quintessential signs of an uprising have put the Syrian regime in a tight spot.

The death of more than a hundered Syrians yesterday, heart renching scenes of live amunition and men helping the fallen, is a loud and clear call for the dismantelling of the security institutions . The gap between the executive cabinet intentions of reform and the inability of the multiple security apparatuses to adjust to a transitional period is starting to wreck havoc.

Syria is bleeding

What kind of a legacy will the Syrian Ba'athist and the National Progressive Front leave in the minds of Syrians??

The rhetoric of "one mind , one voice" is over. On NBN, a Lebanese news channel friendly to Syria, an interviewer asked a Syrian Political Science professor: "Have you ever met an opposition figure in Syria ?". Her answer was after talking about the wonderful personal freedoms in Syria, she said: "No, of course not!! We all think the same in Syria!! We all love our president and see dissenters as traitors!!" ..... and here, frankly, lies the big problem, this is in other words the huge elephant in the room dear professor!!.

The demonstrators are not Muslim Brotherhood, Salafies, infeltrators, Zionists, CIA, ... they are Syrians who are, one would guess, upset about many many things in their homeland, my dear professor.

" واحد, واحد, واحد, الشعب السوري واحد"
"سوريا كلها أحرار, سوريا كلها أحرار"

سوريا: ابتكار منهجية الإصلاح السياسي

المقاربة السياسية بين سوريا و كل من مصرو تونس مجدية في إطارذكر أن المواطن في هذه الدول يطالب بالعيش الكريم, حق التوظيف, حرية الصحافة, رفع حالة الطوارئ ,حرية التعبير, وحرية الإنتماء السياسي. ما يجانب الصواب في مثل هذه المقاربات ,في بعض الاحيان, هو شمولية توصيف رد فعل الحكومات بأنها غير مجدية, و أنها غير قادرة على الوفاء بوعودها الإصلاحية

الإصلاح السياسي في سوريا ممكن, بسسبب إدراك النظام بأهمية بدء الإصلاحات وبسسبب خصوصية المجتمع السوري. التنوع العرقي و الديني في سوريا خلق حالة من الوحدة و التلاحم الحتمي,نتيجة الوعي بالتجارب الطائفية لكل من لبنان و العراق, بالإضافة إلى معاينة استحقاقات نجاح ثورة تونس و مصر و الدور المحوري للوحدة الوطنية في ذلك

خصوصية التجربة السياسية و الإجتماعية السورية ليس مدخلا لتبرئة الوضع الداخلي السوري من اي خلل , لكن ربما تكون هذه الخصوصية هي التي ستمهد لنجاح تجربة الإصلاح السياسي التدريجي المطالب حاليا بإثبات حسن النية و المسارعة ببدء الإعلان عن القرارات و الإطار الزمني لتنفيذها

مخاطر الأزمة في سوريا لن تكون في إطار العنف الطائفي, فكما أشرت, الوعي الإجتماعي في سوريا لهذا الإحتمال كبير.. وكما تردد في كثير من التجمعات الصغيرة و الكبيرة في سوريا في الايام الاخيرة: "واحد, واحد, واحد, الشعب السوري واحد". تكمن إمكانية نجاح الإصلاح السياسي في توظيف ضغط الشارع السوري لإقناع بعض المؤسسات الرقابية و الأمنية بأن تبادربتنسيق الجهود مع اللجان المعنية بمراحعة الملفات, و بخطوات حثيثة

سوريا رائدة بمشروعها العروبي النهضوي في المنطقة . سوريا قادرة أن تكون رائدة في إستيعاب المطلب الشعبي بالإصلاح السياسي و أن تؤسس لمنهج إصلاحي سياسي هو بمثابة نموذج ثالث للتغيير في المنطقة العربية, إلى جانب النموذج المصري و الليبي. نموذج وطني سوري بامتياز

Syria: The Art of Branding Political Reform

A link http://new-middle-east.blogspot.com/2011/03/syria-art-of-branding-political-reform.html

Syria: Initiating Reform is Time Sensitive

So the unrest in Dar'a south of Damascus is either according to SANA perpetrated by an armed mob that resorted to violence and burning buildings, or accroding to other media oulets, a spontaneous start of an uprising that is being supressed. In either case however, there remains a fact that both the Syrian people as well as Syrian officials know very well, and that is the need for political reform and the need to curb corruption...etc.

Syrian officials have recently expressed admiration for the Turkish model of democracy. The Turkish model has tremendous support in the Arab world including in Syria. Arriving at the institutional structure supporting such democratic model however is a long and winding road, which will includ bureaucratic overhauls, inacting the tenants of the rule of law,.. all of which need political will, political mobility and a unified political elite. The need to jumpstart the process seems to be stronger than ever.

Syria is particularly situated to inititate a gradual and peaceful road to reform. Its foreign policy seems to be popular, but can not substitute for a critical self examination, where progress made in areas such as education should be acknowledged and other needed reforms should be discussed openly. All this within an understanding of the importance of national unity.

Horan Arabs, Druze, Kurds, Muslims, Christians,.. are all parts of Syria's unique social fabric, if one social element is in pain, that must not sit well socially and politically until it is equitably addressed by the government.

The potential of Syria is limitless.. the upward mobility in all areas, education, economics, health, tourism, green industry, ... is noteworthy. The Syrian government has a well intentioned and well educated cadre that is capable of formating a plan.. A plan forward.