To al Assad: Step Down!

The security solution deployed by the Syrian government, for eight consecutive months, crippled any political outlet proposed by the internal opposition, the external opposition, Arab delgations, and the UN. 3,500 deaths and tens of thousands of arrests marred the possibility of acceptable reform from the current establishment. It is hard to emagine how the current regime would be capable of negotiating the transfer of power and the shape of the transitional government. The only venue the current regime should be concerned about negotiating now is its exit plan.

The mantra of a "global conspiracy" against Syria, a consistant story-line in the official Syrian news channels, is loosing its steam rapidly within Syria. Even if Damascus and Aleppo maintain their position of neutrality towards the demonstrations, that is not considered a qualifier to maintain the statues quo. The demonstrations elsewhere in Syria are increasingly becoming more political rather than ethnicly or religiously oriented. The slogans range from " one, one, one,the Syrian people are one" and " prefering death to humiliation" , to "Get Out".

The Syrian uprising, fuled by an archaic authoritarian response over eight months, has united Syrians and is approaching a critical juncture. The spokespersons for the Syrian opposition groups need to keep up with the developments on the ground in Syria. If Syrian efforts on the ground are converging towards specific demands, the so called representatives need to prioratize specific political objectives and leave ideological differences, liberalism vs. conservatism, for the ballot box.

A message to president al Assad: Step down! Your plan of containment has failed.

سوريا حبيبتي ..الحرية و الكرامة

ما بعد البعث: بلورة مفهوم الكرامة الوطنية

الدول و أنظمة الحكم على إختلافها ترتكز على مبادئ أساسية لإرساء دعائم الحكم. عندما يكون النظام السياسي في بلد ما على أعتاب مرحلة إنتقالية, تبدأ إعادة النظر و التقييم للمبادئ السياسية التي ارتكز عليها النظام منتهي الصلاحية,

حزب البعث العربي الإشتراكي , و بحكم تفرده عمليا بصياغة القرار السياسي في سوريا منذ عام 1963 أثربشكل فاعل على تشكيل المعالم الاساسية للثقافة السياسية في سوريا . بغض النظر إن كان حزب البعث في العقود السابقة ملتزما بمبادئه أم ملتحفا بها , فإن القاعدة الأيديولوجية للدولة السورية على أعتاب منعطف تاريخي الآن.

مجموعة الاسئلة التي تطرح نفسها فيما يخص التوجه السياسي في المرحلة الإنتقالية: ما هو مصير مبدأ التصدي للهيمنة الغربية على مقدرات الشعوب؟ ما هو مصيرالعمل على استقلالية القرار السياسي و الإقتصادي؟ بعبارة أخرى, ما هو مصيرمبدأ الكرامة الوطنية في خضم التحول السياسي المتأثر بعوامل إقليمية و خارجية؟

لعل إعادة صياغة الكرامة الوطنية بحيث تكون مبدءا وطنيا غير محتكر من حزب أو توجه سياسي, هو من أولويات

المرحلة للأسباب التالية

أولا: إعادة هيكلة خطاب الكرامة الوطنية, الجامع لكل السوريين, على مبدأ وطني هوجهد يعزز الوحدة الوطنية

ثانيا: مرحلة "فك الإرتباط" بالنهج السياسي للنظام السابق تجد لها مخرجا أخلاقيا, بدل أن يكون مدخل للإتهام بالعمالة و الخيانة الوطنية

ثالثا: تبرئة الكرامة الوطنية من الإحتكار الحزبي يمهد الطريق للتنافس السياسي على أسس منهجية من خلال التعددية

السياسية

سوريا حبيبتي.. الحرية و الكرامة

Meeting in Damascus: Guideline of The Three "No"s

Today marked a qualitative leap forward for the Syrian opposition. The opposition, around two hundred individuals, some flew from overseas, met in a private estate on the outskirts of Damascus today. The government denied them a permit to meet in a public space, in return the organizers denied the crew of the official Syrian tv channel to be present at the meeting. What made this meeting qualitatively distinct from the dozens of opposition meetings and conferences held in Paris, Istanbul, Doha, etc. is that for the first time an actual demand sheet was read in the conference representing the demands of the protesters.

This meeting, in other words, was held to provide a forum to support the actual protesters and their demands, instead of being a platform to leap onto the shoulders of those protesters to advance other agendas. Furthermore, this meeting included a diverse representation of the opposition, which reflects the true fabric of Syrian society.

This meeting also concluded with what has become to be known as the "three no s", namely:

No to foreign intervention
No to violence
No to sectarianism

More opposition groups seem to start to converge to this baseline of the three No s. What is also noteworthy is that the business community in both Aleppo and Damascus seem to lean to the moderate opposition line, which was represented by this meeting today in Damascus.

These recent developments reflect the general sensitivity of the Syrian population regarding: 1) the Iraqi experience, and 2) the Lebanese experience. Syrians in general detest the notion of a Syrian expatriate coming to "save" their country in an American armered vehicle. Even worse, they do not want foreign forces to invade and wreck havoc in their country. In addition, Syrians detest the sectarian governing systems in both Lebanon and Iraq, which on the outset is placed to protect the rights of all sects and ethnicities but in reality the system ingrains the frictions between the sects.

The three No s are a start. This ethical stance of the opposition in Damascus today provides an inclusive platform on which all Syrians can participate and be part of.

سوريا حبيبتي.. الحرية و الكرامة

A New Start for Libya

و سقط حاكم ظالم آخر..

This is a new start for Libya and the Libyan people. It goes to prove that words and slogans will never ever replace justice. At some critical point in time, justice and freedom will prevail. It was sad to see the scores of Libyans in Tripoli who held on, till the very end, to the empty populist slogan attered by Gaddafi on his last radio broadcast. Denying the obvious by a minority has been the trademark in all the Middle Eastern uprisings thus far.

Long live Libya in freedom, dignity and prosperity.

Syria: The Limitations of the Security Solution

The Syrian government was able to nurse its embattled image in the international arena last week when the UN declared that all violence must stop in Syria; violence by the regime as well as by the armed groups. Finally, the international community recognized that the Syrian government is confronting an armed rebellion, in addition to sporadic protests in various cities and villages.

The security branch of the Lebanese army declared last week that it was able to stop a shipment from Beirut port headed to Tripoly and then the Syrian city of Banias. There have been at least thirty weapon shipments from that port alone to Syria in the past four months. Turkish officials and Iraqi boarder patrol, as well as Jordanian officials, recognized the same weapon smuggling activities on their ends.

Who are the fighters? Since the Syrian opposition denied vehemently for months that there are armed groups in Syria, one can assume that an upfront association with the armed groups is not in the opposition's best interest. A radical Syrian sheikh by the name of Adnan Arrar, garnered much attention in the last months as being the instigator of the sectarian fueled bloody confrontation between his followers and the security apparatus in various Syrian cities. Arrar feverishly condems non-Sunni Syrian's to death, as all non-Sunnis are, in his opinion, infidels and must be erradicated. In the case of Syria this amounts to around 30% of the population.

While the Syrian government was able to score a point last week with the balanced approach of the UN statement, it can not continue to overuse the security approach. Crushing the armed rebellion can not last for months without a consistant National diologue that will encompass the majority of the opposition demands.

The opposition, on the other hand, is not showing much enthusiasm to negotiate with the regime, given that they perceive time as being on their side. "It is a matter of time before the regime crumbles from the inside" declares one opposition figure in London. "So what if fifty-thousand die.. as long as the regime is defeated" declares another in Australia.

Getting moderate opposition figures to successfully negotiate with the regime must be preceded by a gradual distinction between the types of Syrian opposition. In order to ligitimize the moderates who believe in a democratic government and religious freedom, one must distinguish them from the religious radicals who hold diffirent view points. With the understanding that in a pluralistic government/society, everyone has the right to express and hold differing opinions.

The multilayered pressure experienced by the Syrian government, from the protesters, armed groups, and international community is not a new experience in content but in intensity. The Syrian government, thus far, has prioratized the security solution, meaning the systematic and surgical military and security operations in towns from Dar'a, Banians, Jisr ashughur, Homs, Hama, and now in Dair Azur.
It must be said in this regard, that the recent decrees passed, specially decree 100 and 101, have fundementally changed and improved the political landscape in Syria.

Bringing both sides to the negotiating table is an effort in recognition. The Syrian government must accept the fact that there are mounting social, political and economic grievences against the regime, and that there are very respected opposition figures outside as well as inside Syria who insist on achieving political pluralism, freedom of speech and social/economic justice. On the other hand, the opposition needs to recognize that a dialogue with the Syrian government is not a sellout nor is it percieved as accepting second best. In fact, most modern social movements succeeded in changing the regime structure through elite negotiations.

The prioratization of the security solution is pushing the Syrian regime away from moderate opposition figures, and it is alienating Syria's neighbors who are supporting a political solution to the Syrian crises.

Monday: A Chance to start National Healing

A meeting this Monday between Syrian opposition figures in Damascus is sure to start the trend of open political discussion outside of the official government controlled realm. It is a start.


More than a hundred and twenty intellectuals will gather to discuss and introduce ideas on how to end the violent upheaval and address the demands of the protesters. How to transition to a democratic pluralistic state is the major headline of this meeting. This meeting includes Syrian opposition figures from all walks of life, religions and ethnicities. This group is a better representation of current Syrian communities; their concerns and aspirations.


The head of the Civil Society Revival organization in Damascus expressed today his opinion that a National dialogue is the only hope for an inclusive approach to introducing the practical measures that would insure the institutionalization of the protesters' demands.


All the best to the people meeting tomorrow in Damascus.

Why a Libyan Scenario is Unlikely in Syria

The much talked about Jisr-Ashughur, on the outskirt of Idlib, which was a focal point of heavy confrontation between armed groups and the military, is under military control now. The same story that unfolded in Dar'a, Banias and Tal Kalakh, of demonstrations and armed groups conftronting security and miliraty forces, ended with the military retaking control of the city.

What is remarkable about the unrest in Syria is that the unrest erupts heavily in boarder towns: Dar'a is in the south of Syria on the Jordanian boarder, Banias is a shore line city in the west, Tal Kalakh is a village on the Lebanese boarder, and Jis-Ashughur is on the Turkish north western boarder. Some analysts have voiced the correlation between the armed unrest erupting in these cities, and the ability of groups to smuggle weapons across the boarder and prolong the bloody confrontation.

Syrian opposition outside of Syria (there are no organized or institutionalized opposition in Syria other than indiviuals who are counted as opposition) is comprised of mainly the Syrian Muslim brotherhood, which was brutely oppressed in 1982, Syrian Kurds, as well as Syrian communists which were also imprisoned and exiled in the 1960s. This Syrian opposition has mounting grievences against the regime stretching back to the 1960s. Although the opposition is not strongly organized, it does enjoy a heavy international governmental and media support.

Two Syrian opposition conferences have been held in Turkey, the second was held in Anatolya with 300 in attendance and a predominantly Muslim Brotherhood overtone. Considering that Turkey was Syria's strategic ally, hosting the Syrian opposition by Turkey is a glimps into where officials in Turkey, Qatar, and the United States are willing to let the confrontation against Bashar al -Asad go. Now that Erdogan seems to have won re-election, it would be possible that he would return to reassert his support for drastic poltical reform led by the Syrian regime. Erdogan has been talking in concert with the French, English and American's against the regime in Syria during his re-election campaign. Turkey, however, does not desire an overspill of turbulence on its southern boarders.

Creating a replica of Banghazi in Syria is unlikely. The outcome of every violent confrontation with the security and military forces by armed groups has been won by the regime. Furthermore, the towns like Dar'a, Banias and Tal Kalakh have returned to relative calm. The Syrian army despite some media interviews with alleged deserters, seems to be intact. The major cities, Damsacus and Aleppo are remarkably uneffected by either the protests or by the armed groups.


If the international community condemned the brutalty by which the regime is cracking down on protesters and armed opposition, what, if any, is the ethical responsibility of the Syrian opposition?

Is what one Syrian opposition MB leader residing in Australia said true? " 50,000 Syrians dying is a small price to pay to get rid of the regime in Syria"

Syrians who have left Syria in pain in the seventies and eighties are carrying this pain to their country men and women of today. Some Syrians in exile do not want to admit that their communities back home have changed over the period of fourty years. Syria has changed, and that change is painful to accept if your life's purpose is to avenge a past tragic loss and voice a longing to a homeland that does not resemble your memory of it anymore.

Two principles remain:The Syrian opposition has the right to demand reform. The Syrian regime is responsible for the management of the crisis, considering that the window to accept reform by the current government establishment is nerrowing.

All Syrians agree on the following however:
Stop the violence and free the political prisoners.

In addition to:

Political pluralism, independent judiciary, free press, a new Syrian constitution that establishes a new social contract between citizens and government.

"In Syria.. all are one"
"One party system is not for Syrians"